How we will know if we are on track

Victoria first introduced Aboriginal justice targets in 2012 committing to:

• Close the gap in the rate of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people under adult justice supervision by 2031
• Close the gap in the rate of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people under youth justice supervision by 2031

Making progress towards closing the gap relies upon: reducing the number of Aboriginal people entering the criminal justice system for the first time through Government-Aboriginal community partnership strategies that address the social and economic drivers of Aboriginal over-representation; and reducing the frequency, severity and duration of Aboriginal people’s involvement with the justice system over time through actions implemented under this Agreement.

To illustrate the level of change required to get on track to close the gap, the graphs below translate the existing target to show how many fewer Aboriginal people would need to be under justice supervision by the end of the Agreement.

Milestone 1: Reduce the average daily number of Aboriginal adults under justice supervision in prison and community corrections by at least 344 by 2023.

In 2017, there were 1,495 Aboriginal people under adult justice supervision on any given day (a rate of 44.9 per 1,000 Aboriginal adults). To get on track to meet the target there needs to be fewer than 1,151 Aboriginal adults under justice supervision on an average day by June 2023 (a rate of 29.3 or less per 1,000).

Figure 11. Aboriginal adults under justice supervision, rate per 1,000

Source: Corrections Victoria Data Warehouse, ABS 3238.0 Estimate and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians 2001 to 2026, forecasts and trajectory calculated by DJR based on linear trends.
 

Milestone 2: Reduce the average daily number of Aboriginal children aged 10-17 years under youth justice supervision in detention and the community by at least 43 by 2023.

There were 132 Aboriginal children under youth justice supervision (in detention and on community based orders) on an average day in 2016-17 (a rate of 14.8 per 1,000 Aboriginal children). To get on track to meet the target there needs to be fewer than 89 Aboriginal children under justice supervision on an average day by 2023 (a rate of 9.1 or less per 1,000), a reduction of 43 children.

Figure 12. Aboriginal children aged 10-17 years under youth justice supervision, rate per 1,000

Source: AIHW, Youth justice in Australia 2016-17, ABS 3238.0 Estimate and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians 2001 to 2026, forecasts and trajectory calculated by DJR based on linear trends.

Key indicators

The above milestones will be underpinned by key indicators that will allow us to track performance at crucial points in the system, such as:

	Early intervention and prevention Number of community-based early intervention activities that reflect best/promising practice Number and rate of: family incident reports with Aboriginal affected family members family incident reports with Aboriginal other parties Aboriginal victims of crimes against the person Aboriginal offender incidents of crimes against the person.
	Diversion Proportion of Community Correction Orders successfully completed Proportion of Aboriginal first time offenders (child and adult) cautioned by police Number and rate of people receiving intensive bail support Number and rate of Aboriginal people involved in diversion programs Number and rate of Aboriginal individuals assisted to address outstanding fines / warrants
	Rehabilitation Number of released prisoners who do not  come back under justice supervision within two years Number and proportion of Aboriginal prisoners successfully completing Offender Behaviour Programs Number of prisoners and/or offenders engaged in cultural programs